기계학습과 롤링윈도우 기법을 활용한 주식시장 및 환율 예측 연구

기계학습과 롤링윈도우 기법을 활용한 주식시장 및 환율 예측 연구, 은행, 2016

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MMORPG and Artificial Intelligence

이경전, MMORPG와 인공지능, 정보과학회지 23(6), 2005. (PDF) in Korean

 

 

The Behavior Analysis of Exhibition Visitors using Data Mining Technique at the KIDS & EDU EXPO for Children

정민규, 김혜경, 최일영, 이경전, 김재경, 유아교육 박람회에서 데이터마이닝 기법을 이용한 전시 관람 행동 패턴 분석, 지능정보연구, 17(2), pp. 77-96, 2011. (PDF) in Korean

ABSTRACT

An exhibition is defined as market events for specific duration to present exhibitors’ main products to business or private visitors, and it plays a key role as effective marketing channels. As the importance of exhibition is getting more and more, domestic exhibition industry has achieved such a great quantitative growth. But, In contrast to the quantitative growth of domestic exhibition industry, the qualitative growth of Exhibition has not achieved competent growth. In order to improve the quality of exhibition, we need to understand the preference or behavior characteristics of visitors and to increase the level of visitors’ attention and satisfaction through the understanding of visitors. So, in this paper, we used the observation survey method which is a kind of field research to understand visitors and collect the real data for the analysis of behavior pattern. And this research proposed the following methodology framework consisting of three steps. First step is to select a suitable exhibition to apply for our method. Second step is to implement the observation survey method. And we collect the real data for further analysis. In this paper, we conducted the observation survey method to obtain the real data of the KIDS & EDU EXPO for Children in SETEC. Our methodology was conducted on 160 visitors and 78 booths from November 4th to 6th in 2010. And, the last step is to analyze the record data through observation. In this step, we analyze the feature of exhibition using Demographic Characteristics collected by observation survey method at first. And then we analyze the individual booth features by the records of visited booth. Through the analysis of individual booth features, we can figure out what kind of events attract the attention of visitors and what kind of marketing activities affect the behavior pattern of visitors. But, since previous research considered only individual features influenced by exhibition, the research about the correlation among features is not performed much. So, in this research, additional analysis is carried out to supplement the existing research with data mining techniques. And we analyze the relation among booths using data mining techniques to know behavior patterns of visitors. Among data mining techniques, we make use of two data mining techniques, such as clustering analysis and ARM(Association Rule Mining) analysis. In clustering analysis, we use K-means algorithm to figure out the correlation among booths. Through data mining techniques, we figure out that there are two important features to affect visitors’ behavior patterns in exhibition. One is the geographical features of booths. The other is the exhibit contents of booths. Those features are considered when the organizer of exhibition plans next exhibition. Therefore, the results of our analysis are expected to provide guideline to understanding visitors and some valuable insights for the exhibition from the earlier phases of exhibition planning. Also, this research would be a good way to increase the quality of visitor satisfaction. Visitors’ movement paths, booth location, and distances between each booth are considered to plan next exhibition in advance. This research was conducted at the KIDS & EDU EXPO for Children in SETEC(Seoul Trade Exhibition & Convention), but it has some constraints to be applied directly to other exhibitions. Also, the results were derived from a limited number of data samples. In order to obtain more accurate and reliable results, it is necessary to conduct more experiments based on larger data samples and exhibitions on a variety of genres.

Design of Serendipity Service Based on Near Field Communication Technology

이경전, 홍성우, NFC 기반 세렌디피티 시스템 설계, 지능정보연구, 17(4), 2011.(PDF) in Korean

ABSTRACT

The world of ubiquitous computing is one in which we will be surrounded by an ever-richer set of networked devices and services. Especially, mobile phone now becomes one of the key issues in ubiquitous computing environments. Mobile phones have been infecting our normal lives more thoroughly, and are the fastest technology in human history that has been adapted to people. In Korea, the number of mobile phones registered to the telecom company, is more than the population of the country. Last year, the numbers of mobile phone sold are many times more than the number of personal computer sold. The new advanced technology of mobile phone is now becoming the most concern on every field of technologies. The mix of wireless communication technology (wifi) and mobile phone (smart phone) has made a new world of ubiquitous computing and people can always access to the network anywhere, in high speed, and easily. In such a world, people cannot expect to have available to us specific applications that allow them to accomplish every conceivable combination of information that they might wish. They are willing to have information they want at easy way, and fast way, compared to the world we had before, where we had to have a desktop, cable connection, limited application, and limited speed to achieve what they want. Instead, now people can believe that many of their interactions will be through highly generic tools that allow end-user discovery, configuration, interconnection, and control of the devices around them. Serendipity is an application of the architecture that will help people to solve a concern of achieving their information. The word ‘serendipity’, introduced to scientific fields in eighteenth century, is the meaning of making new discoveries by accidents and sagacity. By combining to the field of ubiquitous computing and smart phone, it will change the way of achieving the information. Serendipity may enable professional practitioners to function more effectively in the unpredictable, dynamic environment that informs the reality of information seeking. This paper designs the Serendipity Service based on NFC (Near Field Communication) technology. When users of NFC smart phone get information and services by touching the NFC tags, serendipity service will be core services which will give an unexpected but valuable finding. This paper proposes the architecture, scenario and the interface of serendipity service using tag touch data, serendipity cases, serendipity rule base and user profile.

Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling Using Multiple Neural Network Models

Shin, K. Lee, K., Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling Using Multiple Neural Network Models, Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence 3214:668–674, September, 2004. – SCIE, ISSN:0302-9743

Abstract

The primary goal of this paper is to get over the limitations of single neural network models through model integration so as to increase the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction. We take the closeness of the output value to either 0 or 1 as the models confidence in its prediction as to whether or not a company is going to bankrupt. In case where multiple models yield conflicting prediction results, our integrated model takes the output value of the highest confidence as the final output. The output of the confidence-based integration approach significantly increases the prediction performance. The results of composite prediction suggest that the proposed approach will offer improved performance in business classification problems by integrating case-specific knowledge with the confidence information and general knowledge with the multi-layer perceptrons generalization capability.

Support Vector Machines Approach to Pattern Detection in Bankruptcy Prediction and its Contingency

Shin, K., Lee, K., Kim, H., Support Vector Machines Approach to Pattern Detection in Bankruptcy Prediction and its Contingency, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 3316:1254-1259, November, 2004.  – SCIE ISSN:0302-9743. pdf

Abstract

This study investigates the effectiveness of support vector machines (SVM) approach in detecting the underlying data pattern for the corporate failure prediction tasks. Back-propagation neural network (BPN) has some limitations in that it needs a modeling art to find an appropriate structure and optimal solution and also large training set enough to search the weights of the network. SVM extracts the optimal solution with the small training set by capturing geometric characteristics of feature space without deriving weights of networks from the training data. In this study, we show the advantage of SVM approach over BPN to the problem of corporate bankruptcy prediction. SVM shows the highest level of accuracies and better generalization performance than BPN especially when the training set size is smaller.

A Peer-to-Peer CF-Recommendation for Ubiquitous Environment

Kim, H., Lee, K., Kim, J., A Peer-to-Peer CF-Recommendation for Ubiquitous Environment, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 4088: 678-683, 2006.pdf

Abstract

In ubiquitous environment where all entities can freely connect and collaborate with each other from anywhere, the amount of accessible information is overwhelming and desired information often remains unfound. So there is a growing need to provide the personalized recommendation services for the customers in ubiquitous space. This paper suggests a UREC_P2P (U-Recommendation by peer-to-peer), a recommendation procedure in ubiquitous environment adopting P2P technologies combined with collaborative filtering algorithm. UREC_P2P is implemented and comparatively evaluated with a CFbased recommender system in client-server environment. The evaluation result shows that UREC_P2P has a good potential to be a preeminent and realistic solution to the recommendation problems encountered in ubiquitous environment.